Hybrid Cars: Freedom or Fallacy?

The hype has died down a little since the price of crude oil collapsed from last year’s high of almost $US150 a barrel, but even at $50-60 a barrel, hybrid cars get plenty of buzz. Angelinos dream about scoring a used Prius with one of the coveted clean air vehicle tags, and Honda and Toyota are gearing up for a heated advertising battle pitting the Insight versus the Prius. Once maligned as the vehicle of choice for only the tree huggers or techie early adopters, these vehicles are going mainstream. Perhaps those nasty auto manufacturers and oil companies that allegedly conspired to rip out LA’s Red Car tracks in the 1950s, only to replace them with freeways (they’re not free, Californians!), will finally, finally, get their comeuppance!

But are hybrids really the answer? I’m not a car expert—all I know is that I wish I could live without one, as I did when I lived in Seoul in the mid-1990s--Give me a 10-line subway system, 24 hour buses, and taxis with white-gloved drivers any day!!!—BUT, there’s been plenty of banter detailing how there are many car models that are more fuel efficient than the darling Prius. And don’t even get me started on hybrid SUV’s, which don’t deserve much more than snickering—the recent and future rises in oil prices, recent economic collapse, and consumer trends will see that trend die.

But forget about the discussion over performance and fuel efficiency. The Atlantic has a disturbing article on the rare metals that are critical for hybrid battery technology. Until the 1990s, one mine in a remote section of California was responsible for metals that only the Berkeley-bound kids could locate on the periodic chart table: neodymium was the new gold after europium demand diminished (c’mon, you know that was what made those red tones in your old color TV!). Long story short—these rare metals became too expensive to mine when another source emerged—yes, you guess it—China! Depending on how well the USA and China can maintain relations, we could be falling for another environmental bait-and-switch: trading in Middle Eastern oil dependence and volatility for a dependence on Chinese rare metals.

And lest I forget, with the current fleet of hybrid cars, once you enter the highway, you’re using—gasoline. So this opens another can: how many years of oil reserves do we really have? The Saudis claim decades, but there seems to be no accurate answer. We could go Palin and drill baby, drill, but let’s just face it—the oil off of our coasts, or Brazil’s, or elsewhere, is just too expensive to drill, and according to one energy expert with whom I’ve spoken, oil companies just want those leases so their balance sheets look good.

I am also dubious on other fuel sources: corn ethanol is a disaster that Midwestern senators and AMD can barely defend, and while it’s great that French fry oil can fuel some diesel engines, biofuels really should only be considered for a fleet approach. Never mind hydrogen: the amount of energy necessary to fire up such a car is a cruel joke.

Perhaps plug-in hybrids are the answer. After all, most of us only drive 40-50 miles a day, even with a commute. Ford will start producing plug-in hybrid vehicles in 2012, and President Obama has slapped the wrists of domestic auto manufacturers, saying that Japan is the leader in plug-in technology. While Obama was criticized for what some believe is an inaccurate assessment, this is an opportunity to get the auto companies to revamp their business models and incorporate new technologies into their manufacturing. After all, in an ideal world, if everyone recharged their batteries overnight, this would only add another 3 to 7% strain on the electrical grid—and note that all this recharging would be done during off-peak hours. Now if we’re to believe the author of The Atlantic article, we’d be in a fix, but if alternative technologies can be developed—and if the government would add some horsepower to the Department of Energy’s SBIR program, surely the move towards plug-in technology could occur in the next decade. If we’re serious about weaning ourselves away from fossil fuels, we need to remember what Rahm Emanual said: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.” The time for such a shift is now!